AGP Executive Report

Climate Risk for Central Asia: A new UNEP assessment says the world will likely cross 1.5°C soon, with Central Asia urged to plan for unavoidable impacts on water, food and livelihoods. Uzbekistan Inflation Watch: Annual inflation eased to 6.2% in August (from 6.4% in July), with food and transport driving most of the monthly rise. Nuclear Project Governance: Uzbekistan’s latest update on its $9.5bn nuclear plant omits Rosatom and instead points to a new consortium and independent oversight—signaling a shift in how the project will be managed. Startup Finance Push: Uzbekistan plans the “Future Entrepreneur” program (2027-2030), with UzVC funding up to 30 startups and support across engineering, pharma, chemicals, construction materials, and water/energy-saving tech. Cross-Border Rail Milestone: The China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway hit a major milestone as the first Kyrgyz-section tunnel was drilled through, advancing a new China–Central Asia rail link. Qatar–Uzbekistan Cultural Deal: Qatar Museums’ Sheikha Al Mayassa inaugurated CCA Tashkent, a permanent contemporary arts centre, as part of a five-year cooperation with Uzbekistan’s ACDF. Digital Payments Cooperation: India’s parliamentarians highlighted interoperability between India’s UPI and Uzbekistan’s QR/payment systems as a model for inclusive digital access.

Uzbek-Qatar Cultural Push: Sheikha Al Mayassa inaugurated Tashkent’s Centre for Contemporary Arts, the country’s first permanent contemporary art hub, in a reimagined 1912 industrial building; Qatar Museums and Uzbekistan’s ACDF will run a five-year collaboration under the Years of Culture initiative. Digital Payments Cooperation: India’s Raghav Chadha used Uzbekistan’s IPU conference in Samarkand to spotlight digital inclusion, citing the India–Uzbekistan UPI and UZQR interoperability deal as a model for cross-border payments without cards or cash. State Asset Market Plans: UzNIF says it will take six state-owned portfolio companies public over the next three years, pointing to governance changes and energy tariff reforms as growth drivers. Startup Financing Mechanisms: Uzbekistan will launch the “Future Entrepreneur” program (2027-2030) with up to 30 startups funded via interest-free convertible loans/SAFE, targeting sectors from engineering to pharma and water-saving tech. Regional Connectivity Engineering: The China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway hit a milestone as the first tunnel on the Kyrgyz section was drilled through, while work continues on major bridges including the tallest in Suzak. Logistics Talent in Action: A young Uzbek logistics professional in China’s Xinjiang highlights growing cross-border freight opportunities between China and Central Asia. Energy/Industry Context: A refinery-related report from Kara-Balta underscores Uzbekistan’s gold processing capacity and industrial security controls.

Startup Finance Push: Uzbekistan will launch the “Future Entrepreneur” program (2027-2030) to back up to 30 startups via UzVC’s National Venture Fund, offering up to 5 billion soums per project through interest-free convertible loans/SAFE deals, with the state capped at 49% and an initial 150 billion soums budget. Railway Engineering Milestone: On the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan line, the first Kyrgyz tunnel has been drilled through (Kosh Dobo North No. 2, 209.6m), while work continues on 27 tunnels, 43 bridges and 88 roadbed sections. Big Bridge Build: Kyrgyzstan is also constructing the route’s tallest bridge in Suzak over the Kech-Alat River (956.67m long, 96m pier height, 122m total), with foundation work completed. Tech & Fintech Ecosystem: The Central Bank of Uzbekistan is expanding fintech oversight with an innovation hub and a $50m venture fund, aiming to accelerate credit scoring and investment in the sector. Trade & Connectivity Context: Coverage around the SCO’s Bishkek summit highlights growing economic cooperation alongside security priorities, with Uzbekistan repeatedly named among key partners. Energy Security Angle: A separate report flags how maritime disruptions like the Strait of Hormuz can quickly ripple into global energy supply chains.

Rail Infrastructure Breakthrough: The China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway hit a major milestone as the first tunnel on Kyrgyz territory was drilled through, with the 209.6m Kosh Dobo North No. 2 tunnel completed; work is also advancing on 27 tunnels, 43 bridges and 88 roadbed sections. Big Engineering Push: In Suzak, Kyrgyzstan, construction is underway on the route’s highest bridge over the Kec-Alat River (956.67m span; 96m highest support), with foundation work already done. Uzbek–Serbia Trade Plan: President Mirziyoyev’s Sept 7–8 visit to Serbia will target expanded trade and investment, with joint projects in transport, engineering, light and food industries, agriculture, pharma and IT, plus labor migration cooperation and a package of intergovernmental agreements expected. Fintech & Budgeting: Uzbekistan’s Central Bank-led fintech push is highlighted by a credit platform, an innovation hub and a $50m venture fund, while MITI’s separate 2027 budget submission underscores how governments are backing high-growth tech industries. SCO Economic Agenda: Commentary around the SCO’s shift from security to production and connectivity points to growing trade and investment links across energy, minerals, infrastructure and new energy—relevant for Uzbekistan’s industrial integration. Energy Security Dialogue: A Samarkand parliamentary session flagged global energy-route risks, using the Strait of Hormuz as a reminder that disruptions to maritime corridors can quickly ripple into industry and supply chains.

Industrial Zones & Logistics: Osh City plans a new production zone on a 105-hectare plot transferred by Uzbekistan to Kyrgyzstan, with local officials and the Defense Ministry inspecting the land and assessing facility placement and logistics. Tech & Innovation Links: Hong Kong’s Cyberport is deepening ties with Kazakhstan’s Astana Hub and IT Park Uzbekistan, aiming to move AI, fintech, smart-city and Web3 startups into wider Asia-Pacific markets via hub-to-hub cooperation. China–Uzbekistan Industrial Push: Fergana region officials say Chinese investors are exploring projects in nonwoven materials, road construction materials and petrochemical additives, with talks focused on new investment proposals and required infrastructure. Defense & Trade Cooperation: Uzbekistan’s ambassador to India says defense ties are built on joint exercises, strategic consultations and military-technical cooperation, with a shift toward joint development and co-production. Critical Minerals & Supply Chains: A U.S. House hearing highlighted Uzbekistan and Central Asia as key partners for building resilient critical-mineral supply chains amid efforts to reduce dependence on China. SCO Momentum for Regional Connectivity: Coverage around the SCO Bishkek summit underscores expanding cooperation across security, technology and connectivity—areas that intersect with Uzbekistan’s industrial and trade agenda.

SCO & Connectivity: Uzbekistan is pushing the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation to move from principles to working mechanisms, with Tashkent highlighting security coordination, Eurasian economic connectivity and digital development as priorities after the Bishkek summit. Energy Security: Gazprom says it boosted gas supplies to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan by nearly 70% in 2026, while Kyrgyzstan is also trying to cut fuel import risk by refining more domestically using crude routed via Kazakhstan. Critical Minerals & Trade: The U.S. is seeking to turn Central Asia’s critical minerals potential into projects, with attention on Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan amid talks in Bishkek. Industry & Infrastructure: A new production zone is planned on 105 hectares transferred from Uzbekistan to Kyrgyzstan in Osh, following border agreements. Bilateral Business: Uzbekistan’s ambassador to India says PM Modi’s visit helped set up a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership,” with trade targets rising and uranium/critical minerals cooperation expanding. Culture & Creative Economy: Qatar Museums and Uzbekistan’s ACDF signed a five-year cooperation deal focused on human capital and creative industries.

SCO Push for Practical Integration: Uzbekistan is urging the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to move from principles to working mechanisms—economic integration, security coordination, digital development and cross-border connectivity—after President Mirziyoyev’s Bishkek push for a “practical SCO agenda” spanning investment, AI, railways and Afghanistan. Nuclear Industrial Localisation: Uzbekistan’s $9.5bn nuclear power plant project is in active construction (since June 4), with authorities demanding higher domestic content: local products from 21% to at least 30% and 65% of construction/installation by national firms, supported by a planned 200-hectare industrial zone in Farish for components and materials. Trade & Investment with Serbia: Uzbekistan–Serbia ties keep expanding, with trade turnover up nearly ninefold since 2016–2025; cooperation priorities include mechanical engineering, pharmaceuticals, chemicals and agriculture. Digital Economy Networking: ICTWEEK Uzbekistan 2026 will run Sept 22–25 in Tashkent, targeting startups, AI, cloud, cybersecurity and investor matchmaking to connect Uzbekistan’s tech ecosystem to global markets. Energy Security Watch: A new analysis links Ukraine’s refinery drone pressure to Central Asia’s fuel vulnerability, highlighting how dependence on Russian petroleum products can quickly translate into shortages and price spikes. Gold Reserves Trend: World Gold Council data shows central banks added 23 tonnes of gold in July; Uzbekistan is listed among sellers (1 tonne), while China and Poland lead purchases.

Nuclear Localization Push: Uzbekistan is accelerating its $9.5bn nuclear power plant build in Jizzakh, raising the target for Uzbek-made supplies from 21% to at least 30% and aiming for 65% of construction and installation work by national firms; a planned 200-hectare industrial zone in Farish is set to host at least 100 joint ventures to produce NPP construction materials and components. Logistics Investment: DP World will start October construction of a $288m Tashkent multimodal logistics terminal in the Yangi Avlod Special Industrial Zone, with capacity of 150,000 TEUs (120m tonnes) and rail, highway, and airport links. Tech & Startup Pipeline: ICTWEEK Uzbekistan 2026 returns to Tashkent on Sept 22-25, focusing on AI, cybersecurity, cloud, gaming, and digital infrastructure, with investor meetings and startup pitches. Water Security Cooperation: Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan held UNECE-backed talks on protecting and sustainably using the Tashkent transboundary aquifer, discussing a roadmap through 2030 and a draft MOU. Regional Energy Angle: A new analysis argues Central Asia’s energy transition hinges on water security, linking hydropower reliability, drought risk, and cross-border power planning. Geopolitics Watch: A report says Russia’s Putin issued a notably curt response after a Kyrgyzstan meeting with Uzbekistan’s Mirziyoyev, hinting at cooling ties amid broader SCO diplomacy.

Uzbekistan–Kazakhstan Water Talks: Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan met in Tashkent to coordinate protection and effective use of shared water resources, focusing on a draft roadmap for the Tashkent transboundary aquifer through 2030, including monitoring upgrades and rational water use. SCO Economic Push: At the Bishkek SCO summit (25th anniversary), leaders adopted the Bishkek Declaration and a package of 28 documents spanning transport connectivity, energy security, trade facilitation and AI—aiming to turn political commitments into practical regional projects. Pakistan–Uzbekistan Trade & Energy: Pakistan and Uzbekistan set a target to lift bilateral trade to $2bn over five years, with plans to expand direct air links and deepen cooperation in electricity connectivity, renewables and hydropower. Uzbekistan Nuclear Build: President Mirziyoyev reviewed progress on an integrated nuclear power plant in Jizzakh, urging higher local content (at least 30%) and broader domestic participation in construction and installation. China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan Railway Supply: Construction on the CKU railway continues with Chinese engineering machinery supporting works in Kyrgyzstan, underscoring ongoing regional infrastructure momentum. US Critical Minerals Pressure: The US House advanced legislation to expand domestic mining and processing to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals—an external policy signal that could affect Central Asia’s mineral supply chains.

Nuclear Buildout: President Shavkat Mirziyoyev reviewed active-phase work on Uzbekistan’s integrated nuclear power plant in Jizzakh, with the reactor foundation pit excavation completed and concrete poured at the slab site; officials are pushing for higher local content (currently 21%, target at least 30%) and more domestic construction/installation work (at least 65%) as the $9.5bn project scales. Trade & Industry: Uzbekistan’s foreign trade turnover hit $49.5bn in the first seven months of 2026, with machinery and transport equipment the biggest import category and export diversification improving (excluding gold, exports rose 27.7%); services exports climbed 35.3%, led by tourism and transport. SCO Nuclear Security: At the SCO’s Bishkek summit, leaders adopted the bloc’s first nuclear safety and security declaration, calling for stronger regulation, emergency response and action against illicit trafficking of nuclear materials—while reaffirming peaceful nuclear use rights. Energy for Digital Economy: Uzbekistan is positioning power reliability as a key enabler for data centers, commissioning new generation and battery storage capacity and highlighting predictable, 24/7 electricity as a core investment requirement. Uzbekistan–India Economics: India and Uzbekistan discussed expanding industrial cooperation and a possible near-final long-term uranium supply arrangement, alongside a push to lift bilateral trade toward $5bn by 2030. Regional Connectivity: The Middle Corridor’s transit gains are being reshaped by sanctions and Red Sea disruptions, with new routing and financing competition affecting Central Asia-linked logistics flows.

SCO Development Push: China’s Xi used the 25th SCO anniversary in Bishkek to stress “development and security” and shared-prosperity goals, with Uzbekistan in the mix as the bloc expands practical cooperation beyond declarations. Border & Trade Finance: The ADB approved a USD 400 mln BUILD facility for CAREC border upgrades, targeting faster rail/road crossings, digital inspection systems, and lower logistics costs—key for Uzbekistan’s trade competitiveness. Uzbekistan-Russia Industry Momentum: Mirziyoyev and Putin met in Bishkek, citing 12% trade growth since early 2026 and renewed focus on joint projects in industry, energy, metallurgy and transport. Energy Infrastructure Example: A China-built solar farm in Uzbekistan’s Jizzakh region (Phase I already operating) was highlighted as a concrete SCO-linked development outcome. Security & Terror Financing: South Korea arrested Uzbek nationals over alleged crypto flows tied to a Syria-based terrorist group, underscoring cross-border financial risks. Uzbekistan-India Cultural & Tourism Links: Modi announced initiatives with Uzbekistan including restoring Buddhist heritage, Hindi scholarships, and tourism cooperation—supporting people-to-people demand alongside trade.

SCO Summit in Bishkek: Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev joined Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi as leaders adopted the Bishkek Declaration, pushing deeper security, trade and technology cooperation, plus new rules for a Universal Center in Tashkent to counter regional threats. Water & diplomacy: Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif used the summit to stress that shared water must never be “weaponised,” amid the Indus Waters Treaty dispute. Terrorism stance: Modi urged SCO members to dismantle the full terror financing and safe-haven ecosystem and reject “double standards.” Industry & logistics: DP World and Tashkent Invest advanced plans for a $288m Tashkent multimodal dry port, targeting an October start and rail-linked warehousing. Energy & minerals: India and Uzbekistan moved closer on a long-term uranium supply framework and a $5bn trade target by 2030, with cooperation flagged across mining and critical minerals. Digital payments: UPI hit a record 24.51bn transactions in August, while Uzbekistan is set to expand UPI access via partners.

India–Uzbekistan Strategic Upgrade: PM Narendra Modi’s Tashkent visit elevated ties to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, with a long-term uranium supply framework and a USD 5bn trade target by 2030, plus expanded cooperation in defence, critical minerals, digital connectivity and logistics. Visa and payments momentum: Uzbekistan introduced 30-day visa-free entry for Indian travellers and India’s UPI rollout in Uzbekistan is set to deepen cross-border commerce. SCO in Bishkek, regional industry angle: At the SCO summit sidelines, Uzbekistan’s leaders discussed expanding cooperation with Russia across industry, energy, metallurgy and transport, while Pakistan and Uzbekistan also pledged tighter links in industry, agriculture, mining, digital tech and security. Connectivity for Central Asia: China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway construction is accelerating, with Uzbekistan highlighted as a key beneficiary of improved regional trade routes. Trade de-risking: Singapore and Uzbekistan moved toward an FTA, aimed at reducing uncertainty for Singapore firms and boosting services, investment and selected goods. Energy security backdrop: Global attention remains on SCO-era diplomacy as leaders push for stability amid energy-route disruptions.

India–Uzbekistan Nuclear & Trade Push: PM Narendra Modi’s Tashkent visit elevated ties to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, with a target of $5bn annual trade by 2030 and a long-term uranium supply arrangement under IAEA safeguards, alongside cooperation in critical minerals, mining, defence, pharma, digital connectivity and transport. Logistics & Trade Facilitation: DP World will start building a $288m Tashkent dry port in Oct 2026, aiming to cut landlocked cargo-handling costs by bundling rail/road freight, warehousing and customs in a special industrial zone. Payments for Visitors: NPCI International Payments and Uzbekistan’s HUMO (via NIPC) agreed to enable UPI-to-merchant payments in Uzbekistan using the UZQR system. China–Uzbekistan Industrial Scale-Up: Xi and Mirziyoyev set a goal to lift bilateral trade to $30bn, highlighting cooperation in energy, chemicals, metallurgy, construction materials, food production, transport and mining. Regional Connectivity Build-Out: Work on the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway is accelerating, with Xi calling it a key Belt and Road modernization project. Security & Knowledge Risks: A Uzbekistan critical minerals scholar was reported arrested in Kazakhstan on espionage charges, underscoring the sensitivity around mineral research and cross-border cooperation.

India–Uzbekistan Strategic Upgrade: PM Narendra Modi and President Shavkat Mirziyoyev elevated ties to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, set a $5bn trade target by 2030, and agreed on a foreign ministers-led coordination mechanism plus ministerial-level upgrades to existing commissions. Uranium & Critical Minerals: Talks closed in on a long-term uranium supply framework and broader cooperation in critical minerals and mining. Digital Payments for Industry & Travel: India and Uzbekistan moved toward UPI interoperability, with merchant payments in Uzbekistan via QR scanning expected within a year. Defence & Security Cooperation: Leaders pushed deeper defence industry linkages, regular exchanges, and highlighted the DUSTLIK joint military exercise. Bilateral Deals Package: The visit produced 11 MoUs spanning mining, tourism, culture, education, Ayurveda/healthcare, archives, and heritage restoration. SCO Summit Context (Bishkek): Modi arrived in Bishkek for the 26th SCO Summit, with security, counter-terrorism, and regional connectivity on the agenda as Xi Jinping also lands for the event. Workforce Skills: UDST in Qatar completed a 10-month vocational training programme for Uzbek trainees in trades like welding, electrical, plumbing and HVAC. Safety Watch: South Korea’s HD Hyundai Heavy Industries faced another fatal workplace incident amid a labor ministry probe.

India–Uzbek Strategic Upgrade: PM Narendra Modi and President Shavkat Mirziyoyev elevated ties to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, targeting $5bn trade by 2030 and signing 11 agreements across trade, energy, critical minerals, defence, agriculture, pharma, tourism and education. Uranium & Critical Minerals: Talks advanced a long-term uranium supply framework for India’s civilian nuclear plans and expanded cooperation on geology, mining, processing and value-added chains. Digital Payments Push: Uzbekistan agreed to roll out UPI-linked payments via the UZQR system, aiming to boost cross-border commerce and tourism. Business & Market Access: Leaders backed removing non-tariff barriers, exploring a preferential trade agreement, and setting up a foreign-ministers coordination mechanism plus a ministerial-level commission. Diplomatic Momentum: Modi received Uzbekistan’s top foreign honour, the Oliy Darajali Do’stlik Order, and the visit also included cultural and heritage cooperation, including plans to preserve Buddhist sites.